Evidently even the Met Office has had enough of the UK’s odd seasonal weather. Flocking from across the UK, climate and weather experts recently convened at the Met Office’s HQ in (fittingly grey and drizzly) Exeter to discuss the recent run of unusual seasons in Europe.
Representatives from the Universities of Exeter, Oxford, Leeds, Reading and Imperial College London, as well as the Met Office, made up 25 delegates attending the UK weather workshop, which are held on a regular basis on numerous issues across weather and climate science.
The experts focused on weather patterns and their potential causes in three recent seasons: the cold winter of 2010/11, the dismally wet summer of 2012, and this year’s unusually cold spring.
Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, Professor Stephen Belcher, stated: “Ultimately, what we’ve seen in each of these seasons is shifts in the position of the jet stream, which impact our weather in certain ways at different times of year.”
The pertinent question is: what is causing the jet stream to shift in this way? “There is some research to say some parts of the natural system load the dice to influence certain states of the jet stream, but this loading may be further amplified by climate change,” Belcher explained.
Other possible natural factors include declining Arctic sea ice, long-term ocean cycles, solar variability, and other long-term cycles of natural variability.
Centred on the latest research, the workshop looked at how these various drivers influence weather patterns and discussed how future research can further develop understanding in this complex area.
Five out of the last six UK summers have seen above average rainfall (2010 is the exception, which experienced average rainfall) and delegates attending the meeting were privy to new evidence from the University of Reading proposing that long-term Atlantic currents may well be playing a vital role.
These long-term currents are believed to operate on cycles of a decade or more, which suggests that we may see their influence on our summers for a few more years to come. So, don’t count on a sunny summertime wedding in the UK for now! However, although the prevalent issue of long-term currents influencing the odds of a wet summer, the possibility of decent summers over the next few years isn’t to be ruled out – see, there is a silver lining…
