Media headlines are already looking ahead to the kind of weather we can expect as we head towards summer in the UK.
Some articles in the news refer to our 3-month outlook for contingency planners to bolster the idea that we could be in for some fine sunny weather, but this is not what the Met Office’s outlook says. Indeed their 3-month outlook doesn’t give any guidance on sunshine hours, and neither does it forecast warm weather of the type reported – unfortunately!
While it does say that above average temperatures are favoured for the UK for Apr-May-Jun, this is only in regards to the UK’s mean temperature – which takes into account both day and night for the whole three months for the whole country. For reference, the top category of above average temperatures in the outlook is about 11C to 13C. So there’s nothing in there about the exact weather we’ll see for those three months.
Similarly, there were no strong rainfall signals for wet or dry in this particular outlook.
The Met Office’s contingency planner outlooks are experimental and form a part of their research and development. They are complex products based on the likelihood of five different scenarios related to both temperature and rainfall. This can help contingency planners make long-term strategic decisions based on risk exposure, but operational decisions on how to respond to any disruptive weather are based on their five-day forecasts and warnings.
The Met Office’s detailed short range forecasts will always aim to provide the best possible guidance to the public on any periods of cold weather, heavy rain or spells of hot weather, giving detailed local information across the UK.
© Met Office
